Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
